Baker Mayfield’s Surprising Comeback with the Buccaneers: Can They Repeat Last Season’s Success?

Baker Mayfield’s Unexpected Resurgence with the Buccaneers

Last season, Baker Mayfield pulled off a surprising comeback with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Let’s dive into how this unexpected journey unfolded and what it means for the Buccaneers moving forward.

Baker Mayfield: From Almost Out to Standout

In 2022, things looked bleak for Baker Mayfield. The Cleveland Browns were so eager to move on that they paid $10.5 million of his $15.35 million salary just to trade him to the Carolina Panthers. Unfortunately, his stint with the Panthers was rough; he was benched twice on a struggling team and eventually requested his release. The Los Angeles Rams picked him up, but despite a few bright moments, there wasn’t much interest in him as a free agent. That’s how he ended up signing a modest one-year, $4 million deal with the Buccaneers, a stark contrast to other backups making double that.

Mayfield wanted one last shot at being a starter, and the Buccaneers, grappling with the aftermath of Tom Brady’s retirement and tight salary cap, gave him that opportunity. It seemed like a path leading to a permanent backup role, or worse, obscurity. Instead, Mayfield turned that one-year deal into a three-year, $100 million contract with $50 million guaranteed, after a season that exceeded all expectations.

A Season of Surprises

The Buccaneers were predicted to struggle without Brady. Yet, they went 9-8, clinched the NFC South title, and even beat the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 in the wild-card round. Mayfield threw for 4,044 yards and 30 touchdowns, making a strong case for the NFL Comeback Player of the Year, though the award went to Joe Flacco. This unexpected success was a delightful surprise for the Buccaneers, who nearly eliminated the Detroit Lions in the playoffs.

Can Lightning Strike Twice?

The big question is whether the Buccaneers can replicate last season’s success. Losing offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who played a pivotal role in Mayfield’s turnaround, to the Panthers as their new head coach could be a significant blow. Mayfield’s performance in the upcoming season will be closely watched to see if he can continue his resurgence or if he’ll regress like Geno Smith did after his comeback year.

Buccaneers Roster: Stability and Changes

As of mid-May, 79.5% of the Buccaneers’ roster from last season was retained, second-highest in the NFL. Star receiver Mike Evans extended his contract by two years for $41 million, continuing to build his Hall of Fame resume. Receiver Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White remain key players, while safety Antoine Winfield Jr. secured a hefty four-year, $84.1 million contract, making him the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history.

Head coach Todd Bowles, despite a .500 record over two seasons, has led the team to two division titles. The Buccaneers’ strategy to keep most of the roster intact indicates confidence in their current squad’s ability to build on last season’s momentum.

Offseason Moves and Draft

The Buccaneers focused on retaining key players like Mayfield, Evans, and Winfield Jr., while letting go of veterans such as Shaq Barrett and Devin White. The trade of cornerback Carlton Davis III to the Lions without significant replacements raised eyebrows. However, they did make additions like safety Jordan Whitehead and pass rusher Randy Gregory, hoping these gambles pay off. Their draft highlight was guard Graham Barton in the first round, a pick that filled a crucial need.

New Offensive Coordinator: Liam Coen

Liam Coen, who replaced Canales as offensive coordinator, brings a similar system, potentially easing the transition for Mayfield. Coen’s brief NFL stint included working with Mayfield during his short time with the Rams. His familiarity with Mayfield’s playing style could be an advantage, though Coen himself is looking to prove his worth in the NFL after an unsuccessful season with the Rams.

Betting Odds and Fantasy Outlook

Despite winning three consecutive division titles, the Buccaneers aren’t favored to win the NFC South this year. BetMGM gives them +300 odds, trailing the Atlanta Falcons at -120. Their win total is set at 7.5, reflecting a belief in a step back after last season’s unexpected success.

Fantasy-wise, Mike Evans remains a top pick, consistently delivering touchdowns. He’s projected as WR14, while Chris Godwin, despite his reliability, is less favored at WR36 due to his lower touchdown count.

Defensive Performance: Bend But Don’t Break

Last season, the Buccaneers’ defense was a mixed bag: seventh in points allowed but 23rd in yards allowed. Their excellent red-zone defense was a key factor, allowing touchdowns on just 45% of opponents’ possessions inside the 20. Whether they can maintain this bend-but-don’t-break approach remains to be seen, especially with questions in their secondary following Davis’ trade.

Burning Questions and Future Prospects

Will Mike Evans slow down? Doubts about his longevity have persisted, yet he continues to defy expectations, leading the league in receiving touchdowns last season and securing his place in NFL history with ten consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.

Best and Worst Case Scenarios

Best-case scenario: The Buccaneers build on their late-season momentum, with Mayfield continuing his strong performance, leading them to another division title and playoff run.

Nightmare scenario: The Buccaneers’ flaws catch up with them. If the defense falters and Mayfield regresses without Canales, they might struggle to match last season’s success.

Final Thoughts

The Buccaneers have a lot riding on Mayfield’s continued resurgence and the stability of their roster. While they’re not favored to win the division, maintaining their core players gives them a fighting chance. If Mayfield and the defense can hold up, the Buccaneers could surprise us again.